canada’s carbon bet - ccs policies

14-Jul-25

Canada is betting big on carbon management. The federal government has already earmarked more than $23 billion for capture and removal, forty-one projects are in the pipeline, and eight commercial units now run at better than 90% capture.

The strategy covers the full chain (capture, utilisation, storage, and direct air capture) and targets industries that are hard to clean up: cement, steel, oil, gas, and hydrogen. The goal is gigatonne-scale removal by 2040 and net-zero by 2050.

Provincial action drives much of the momentum. British Columbia pairs proven storage geology with an active technology cluster. Saskatchewan runs a credit‑trading scheme that bakes in permanence insurance. Both provinces layer incentives worth tens of millions.

Canada’s edge rests on three structural facts: (a) vast storage space in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, (b) a workforce already fluent in subsurface engineering, (c) a carbon price that climbs to $170 per tonne by 2030 and tips projects into the money.

Near-term execution matters more than new policy. First, build the pipeline backbone that links emitters to storage hubs; the Canada Infrastructure Bank and the fifteen-billion-dollar Growth Fund can shoulder part of the cost. Second, earn public trust by matching US Class VI monitoring, sharing data, and engaging communities early, especially Indigenous nations. Third, drive capture costs toward the $50 to $100 range, track levelised costs, tariffs, and storage factors, and use contracts for difference to close any gaps. Fourth, plug data holes: real capture costs by sector, transport and injection prices, grid-carbon intensities, and the discount rates used in government models.

Executives should watch three numbers by 2030: the count of gigatonne-scale projects in operation, the average capture cost achieved, and public acceptance scores for CO₂ infrastructure. These figures will decide whether Canada keeps heavy industry competitive while building a new export engine for clean-technology services.